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Link to the
Global Economy |
No investor or entrepreneur is willing to risk their capital in
uncertain conditions and unpredictable political risk.
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Dr. Mousa Ghaninejad, Economist
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Irans position in the international arena has been affected by the nuclear
issue for almost two decades and this issue has weakened the economic
position of our country. The globalization of the economy, which has
accelerated significantly since the years after World War II, has progressed
to such an extent that no country can continue to exist as a modern economy
independently of the relations governing the global economy.
Unfortunately, outdated and dangerous theories such as self-sufficiency
still have supporters in our country; unaware that this concept has no
scientific or practical content in the direction of national interests
except for its own ideological message. This favorite saying of some
politicians that we do not tie the economic fate of the country to the
nuclear agreement is obviously a propaganda-election slogan; because in
todays world, no country can keep its economy isolated from the interaction
of the global economy. Politicians often tend to present their aspirations
as objectively achievable realities; although people do not see any trace of
them in their daily life.
The close relationship between nuclear issues and Irans economy does not
depend on anyones will to talk about tying or not tying the two. To
understand this relationship, there is no need to examine extensive and
complex economic data; it is enough to take a look at the daily and obvious
impact of exchange rate fluctuations in the free market and news and rumors
related to nuclear negotiations.
Exchange rate fluctuations in such conditions are nothing but a sign or a
symbol of the very complex relations between Irans national economy and
international relations, or in other words, the tip of the hidden iceberg
that determines the fate of the economy. If the economic growth of our
country has been close to zero in the past decade, the welfare level of
households has decreased drastically and the employment of young people and
educated people has become a big problem. All of this, apart from incorrect
economic policies, is largely due to Iran being at the center of political
tensions. Economic growth requires investment and the activity of
entrepreneurs; but uncertainty about the future works like a deadly poison
in this regard. No investor or entrepreneur is willing to risk their capital
in uncertain conditions and unpredictable political risk.
Also, the suspension of the nuclear negotiations and the delay in bringing
them to conclusion and ending the matter, whatever the political reason,
brings huge economic losses for our country. In todays conditions of the
global energy market, where due to the war in Ukraine, there is an urgent
need to export Iranian oil, the delay in the nuclear agreement costs our
country a lost opportunity; because with an increase of at least one million
barrels per day of oil exports and the resulting income, most of the
governments budget deficit can be compensated and the dangerous
inflationary process that the society is caught in can be ended to a large
extent.
Of course, the mentioned opportunity cost is not limited to the issue of
re-opening the lost markets during these years of sanctions and also the
quantity of the governments revenues, but its quality is also very
important, which oversees the issue of circumventing the sanctions. We
remember that the fact of keeping a lot of information hidden in the past
and resorting to unconventional methods of sales and marketing has polluted
our society. The corruption case of Babak Zanjani has not been closed yet.
In the current situation, professional sanction traders are lurking and it
is not clear what they are cooking for the poor economy of the country.
The necessity of reaching a nuclear agreement is an issue that the fate of
the national economy is tied to, and it should not be used as a pretext for
factional and partisan narrow-minded competitions and settlements. We hope
that the relevant authorities will not forget that they are at an important
historical moment for beloved Iran. |
